Predictions

End of U.S. Recession in 2009?

Posted June 3, 2009

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Post Date: November 23, 2009
According to the U.W. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics, there are more than 31 million people currently unemployed -- that's including those involuntarily working parttime and those who want a job, but have given up on trying to find one. In the face of the worst economic upheaval since the Great Depression, millions of Americans are hurting. The below interactive map serves as a vivid representation of just how much. Watch the deteriorating start of the recession -- to the most recent unemployment data available today.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics

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Will the U.S. recession end by the end of the third quarter of 2009 as predicted by most economists?

According to the Associated Press more than 90 percent of economists predict the U.S. recession will end this year. About 74 percent of economic forecasters expect the recession -- which started in December 2007 and is the longest since World War II, to end in the third quarter of 2009. Another 19 percent predict the turning point will come in the final three months of this year, and the remaining 7 percent believe the recession will end in the first quarter of 2010. Even Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and NABE forecasters say the recession will end later this year, barring any new shocks to the economy.

However many consumers and investors are skeptical of such optimistic forecast. A Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of 1,500 adults for May 27th state that 79% believe that the U.S. economy in a recession with only 8% stating no, and 14% unsure. Another survey showed that 57% of consumers rated the U.S. economy as poor with fewer than 10% saying it is good, or excellent. Finally the latest Rasmussen Reports survey finds that 58% say the nation is moving down the wrong track.

So the question is “Will the U.S. recession end by the end of the third quarter of 2009 as predicted by most economists”?

Date and Time: May 27th 2009, at 1:59 pm EDT, New York, NY.

Click chart for larger view.

In this figure Virgo rises therefore Mercury rules of the Ascendant. In mundane astrology Mercury rules of the news media, opinion polls, and think tanks (an institute or group that conducts research and advocates policy to a nation’s leadership). Mercury’s placement in the 9th house symbolizes the trends forecast for the economy as reported by the media. Mercury is peregrine (without dignity), retrograde, and cadent, testimonies that indicate the forecast model on which the economist made their prediction is faulty and unable to measure the unforeseen and robust shifts in the global economy.

The Moon co-significator of the question, and the measure economic confidence consumers have on a daily basis, makes a separating square from Venus ruler of the 2nd house of the nation’s economic activity, and the banking system. Venus is in detriment, placed in the malefic 8th house of debt and crisis, and is applying to malefic Mars. The Moon is making a separating square from a debilitated Venus which signifies the ending of the fiscal 1st quarter and thus shows the brute force of the recession affecting the American consumer as the economy sank at a steep 5.7 percent pace since January, marking the second straight quarter when the economy began to plummet last fall and thrusting the nation into a financial crisis.

Venus' debilitation and untenable position in the 8th house signifies a nation in massive debt and whose foreign and domestic credit is tapped out as trillions of dollars-worth of toxic assets were dumped onto taxpayers in attempt to bail out the banking sector. With Venus applying to Mars, the risk of inflation will increase as the government continues to print more money in order to provide fiscal stimulus into the economy. This will be followed by higher interest rates as the U.S. dollar begins to tailspin downward.

The Moon’s next application is a sextile to Mercury, an indication of a short-term false flag recovery. Therefore we can expect the stock market to make a strong rally during the 2nd fiscal quarter improving consumer confidence, at least for the short term, in the belief that the economy will be stronger one year from now.

However, the Moon’s next aspect is an applying square to Mars, ruler of the 8th house - a testimony that that another financial crisis may be inevitable. Therefore, we can expect consumer confidence to fall to record lows as economic uncertainty increases as tens of millions of households fall behind on their mortgages or stop paying altogether due to unemployment, job insecurity, credit debt, and rising gas prices.

Conclusion

Based on the testimonies stated above a soft landing recovery is highly unlikely. In fact, the testimonies in the horary augur that 4th quarter economic growth will be negative with the risk of the economy is moving toward a double dip W-shaped recession by next year. Therefore, we can expect a decline in economic growth by the 1st quarter of 2010, paving the way for the development for what NYU professor of economics Nouriel Roubini says could be the “perfect storm.”

Trend

The American consumer will no longer be able to be idle bystanders expecting government to come to the rescue as the severity of economic hardship increases due to rising public debt, double digit unemployment, rampant inflation, and scarcity of energy resources.

NOTE: (June 8, 2009)

Bankruptcy filings are apt to exceed the 2005 number eventually, given data like Jobs Contract 17th Straight Month; Unemployment Rate Soars to 9.4%.
The USA Today is reporting Bankruptcy filings rise to 6,000 a day as job losses take toll.
Last month commercial bankruptcy filings hit 376 a day, up from 255 in May 2008. Hartmarx, which manufactures and markets apparel, and Silicon Graphics, a manufacturer of computer workstations and storage products, were among the filers.
Consumer and commercial bankruptcy filings are on pace to reach a stunning 1.5 million this year, according to a report from Automated Access to Court Electronic Records.

NOTE: (June 16, 2009)

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. economy will not recover until the end of this year, and even then growth will remain meek and vulnerable to higher interest rates and commodity prices, economist Nouriel Roubini said on Tuesday.

Roubini, who rose to prominence for predicting the global credit crisis, tore down the "green shoots" theory that a rebound is imminent, saying there was a significant risk of a "double-dip" recession where the economy expands slightly only to begin contracting again. [Read entire article here.]

NOTE: (June 30, 2009)

(Reuters) The lengthy recession has proved discouraging for the swelling ranks of unemployed Americans, and forced U.S. states obligated to pay them jobless benefits to pile debt on their already strained budgets. Fifteen states have depleted their unemployment insurance funds so far, forcing them to borrow from the U.S. Treasury. A record 30 of the country's 50 states are expected to have to borrow up to $17 billion by next year, said Rick McHugh of the National Employment Law Project, a nonpartisan advocacy group. "We are setting the stage for big pressures for states to restrict eligibility and benefit levels," McHugh said. "Those type of restrictive actions undercut the (Depression-era program's) economic and social stability purposes."

Note (11/19/09): Obama warns on U.S. public debt pile

By Edward Luce in Beijing and Krishna Guha in Washington

Published: November 18 2009 13:35 | Last updated: November 18 2009 21:07

US President Barack Obama warned that the US economy could head into a “double-dip recession” unless urgent steps were taken to rein in mounting public debt.

The US president’s remarks – in an interview with Fox News in Beijing on Wednesday, towards the end of his eight-day tour of Asia – marked his strongest language yet on the necessity of putting public finances back on a sound footing.

“It is important though to recognise if we keep on adding to the debt, even in the midst of this recovery, that at some point, people could lose confidence in the US economy in a double-dip recession,” said Mr Obama.